The Japanese real estate market is famous for oversupply, low prices and flat or even decreasing home values. But these generalizations miss a crucial market, Ski Towns. While Japan lacks the traditional Ski in Ski out accommodations like you’d find in the West, many ski resorts are anchored by vibrant rural towns that have adapted to accommodate foreign tourism and in return have seen dramatic appreciation.
Towns like Hakuba, Niesko and Nozawa Onsen are standout examples of this trend. In the town right below Niseko Grand Hirafu, land values have appreciated a remarkable 14x, from $333 to $4,800 per square meter, in just a 7 year period. And it’s not just the towns located right on the resort, Kutchan located near the future shinkansen stop and about a 15-minute drive to the cluster of Niesko Resorts, has seen residential land prices increase by 44% in that same period. These are numbers that would raise eyebrows even in hot Western markets, let alone in Japan, where real estate appreciation is rare. These numbers far exceed Japan’s hottest markets like Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka.
Hakuba, one of Japan’s more centrally located resorts and conveniently accessible from Tokyo, has seen land values increase by 130% since 2020. Properties near Happo-One and other major resorts are now commanding a premium, driven by both winter tourism and a growing four-season appeal.
If only we had a crystal ball to find out where the next boom town could be. You’d be able to capitalize on Japan’s historically low home prices, nightly rates on par with Western resort towns and ride a wave of appreciation. You’d be hitting the real estate jackpot, high cap rates with high appreciation. While I can’t predict the future, I do have an inkling on where the next town or towns might be.
Myoko Kogen is quietly becoming Japan’s most compelling real estate investment. Home to 4 ski resorts and a charming onsen village, with another 3 or 4 other resorts within a 20-minute drive, it already has an abundance on offer. This area has become a hot spot for international tourists, especially Australian and New Zealanders hoping to escape the corporatization of Niesko and Hakuba. There have been two major investments in Myoko, one overhaul at a pre-existing resort, Lotte Arai and a new luxury resort being built by a Singaporean company, expected to open in 2028. These coupled together have pushed home prices up 9%, but you can still find homes for under 150,000 USD. While nothing is guaranteed the trajectory looks good for Myoko.
The other town worth watching is Otaru, located in Hokkaido. I’ve written a previous newsletter diving deeper into the area, but like Myoko, I believe Otaru has a bright future. With the Shinkansen (bullet train) extension set to reach Otaru and sky-high prices in Niseko and Rusutsu pushing buyers to explore alternatives, Otaru is well-positioned forappreciation. This historic port town sits near five ski resorts, the snowiest in the world (800+ inches a year), and remains surprisingly under the radar. Homes in the $20,000–$50,000 USD range are still common, while nightly rental rates can reach $200–$300. If appreciation enters the equation, Otaru could be a standout investment. And due to its northern location, freeze thaw days are rare unlike Myoko. With each passing year bringing warmer winters, Otaru stands out as one of the most snow-reliable destinations in Japan, arguably the world.
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Derek has been working in the Airbnb space for the past 10+ years and recently purchased a home in Japan. He is excited to bring this investment opportunity to others in the States & abroad.
Nick has a passion for adventure and has always dreamed of owning a property in Japan. His dreams finally came true when Derek brought him in on a deal of a lifetime in Hokkaido, Japan - one of Nick's favorite places on Earth.